Dell and smartphones

The latest rumours indicate that Dell are about to introduce a line of smartphones. Despite the incredible competition in this area, Dell's move makes great sense.

That's because of the convergence of computing to common standards. Smartphones are now mini computers, capable of running the same platform as desktops. Vendors should gain economies of scale by copying Apple, who use Mac OS across its product portfolio, from the iPhone to the iMac.

Dell has two choices for platform. It could choose the one it's worked on for the last twenty years - Windows. Or, as rumoured, it could choose Android.

If Dell chooses Android, this would be a reflection of Microsoft's weakness in the mobile space. But it could also be a harbinger of more to come; why couldn't Dell also use Android for netbooks, even eventually PCs?

I've already predicted further consolidation between the smartphone manufacturers and laptop manufacturers. Now the industries are converging, there are far too many companies around. Dell will struggle to achieve smartphone market share on its own before the market consolidates around it. If Dell is serious about becoming a major provider of smartphones, it should acquire to gain scale and expertise.

Nokia

Nokia is at a turning point. Long the dominant supplier of mobile phones worldwide, it faces new deep-pocketed competitors in Google & Apple, plus structural changes in the industry. Nokia is losing market share and needs a clear strategy.

The mobile phone industry has matured rapidly. Until very recently, companies competed by offering features - a better camera phone, more storage for music, a more colourful screen. The big manufacturers created vast portfolios of phones tailored to different market segments and geographies - camera phones, music phones, children's phones, smartphones, and economy phones.

Smartphones have now converged on a standard set of these features. The next battlefield is the software platform that ties it all together. Apple and Google have turned their phones into general purpose digital devices - in other words, personal computers. They are competing by attracting third party application developers to take advantage of the computing power in their phones. The Apple store, for example, is one of the key selling points behind the iPhone, with more than 5,000 applications already created.

To attract this kind of ecosystem, you need to develop a strong platform. Apple have done this by porting Mac OS to the phone. Google have developed Android. Various other vendors have combined forces to develop LiMo, using Linux. Unfortunately for Nokia, their operating system Symbian is not popular and needs significant investment. Nokia have taken control and will open source the OS. But by the time it's complete, it may be too late.

Nokia have pushed into software and services. "Comes with Music" is an innovative attempt to establish a new business model for digital music, but it's losing money. The purchase of Navteq enabled Nokia to move into location-based services. Neither has yet attracted much interest by the consumer. This is an uphill battle.

A new approach

Nokia is still a profitable company, and it still has marketshare dominance. It just needs to follow the principles below:

Device Convergence

Now the platform is all-important, simplify the device portfolio. Nokia should be offering no more then 3-5 phones in each country, each based off the same platform. After all, Apple have only got one phone, but they're still the second biggest smartphone manufacturer in the world!

Also, now phones are becoming general purpose computers, why not merge with a PC company such as Acer or Dell? The platform should work across all shapes and sizes, perhaps extending upwards from mobile through the Netbook format.

The web is your platform

Fighting against Windows, Mac OS and Linux is a fool's game. Instead, Nokia should align themselves to the biggest platform of all ... the web. Nokia should become a platinum sponsor of Firefox, who are writing an amazing-looking mobile browser, and make it the whole front end to their phones. Creating code for a Nokia phone would then be easy - any web designer could do it.

Nokia could create Firefox extensions to give the browser power over local features such as the microphone, camera and accelerometer. Nokia would instantly have the biggest group of developers and the most third-party innovation of any mobile platform, and they would have the future on their side.

Partner with Silicon Valley

The hotbed of software innovation is Silicon Valley. Writing applications is a totally different business to selling hardware, and Nokia is going to struggle with its services strategy. Nokia should partner, not compete, with Silicon Valley. Why create your own email application if you can just recommend GMail? Why create your own photo application if you can just recommend Flickr? Why not partner with Facebook and Twitter to provide the next level of communications?

Remember, the web is your platform, not the operating system. So please, no more do-it-yourself services after music and maps.

Each of these principles could be easily achieved in a year or so. But they would establish Nokia on the right side of the changes taking place in the mobile industry.

Apple's new SDK

Well, Apple's new SDK was quite a surprise. It's not just a better version of Safari, though there is one coming. It's a native SDK with full-blown access to iPhone features like the touch screen, video, networking, and accelerometer.

What does this mean? Firstly, it's now clear that "touch" is a new platform, not just a new phone. We'll definitely now see more Apple "touch" devices - not just phones, but perhaps tablets and surfaces. All that SDK work is creating an ecosystem that other devices will slot into nicely.

Who will develop native apps? Apple showed an array of different providers, from the enterprise (Salesforce) to messaging (AOL) and gaming (Sega and EA Games). Personally I think gamers will be the most keen - they will love the accelerometer, advanced graphics and OpenGL tooling.

The last platform

Over the years we've seen some great platforms - Windows, Mac, and Linux come to mind. Now we have the Apple Touch platform. But the Salesforce demo was very instructive; why write an iPhone app when you can just publish a website?

If the Apple Touch SDK becomes very popular, it will be because it exploits the web's weaknesses (e.g. control over sensors such as accelerometers, and video quality animations). That's the other reason why gaming is a natural fit.

This surely won't continue for much longer. The web is closing the gap (e.g. recent work on an HTML 3D canvas element, or my sensors proposal).

Could the Apple Touch be the last great platform before the web subsumes even more? We'll just have to find out!

Firefox on the iPhone?

Now we've seen the iPhone SDK, a quick thought - why not create Firefox for the iPhone?

Since we already have Firefox on Mac, it shouldn't be too difficult to port - and it would help Firefox developers strengthen their approach for multi-touch.

Personally I would love to use Firefox extensions on the iPhone...

Too many mobile operating systems?

Vodafone's CEO, Arun Sarin, has used his Mobile Wireless Congress speech to call for mobile OS consolidation. He's claiming it's a pain to develop for up to 30 different incompatible systems (though, in a clear reference to Microsoft, he also confirmed he didn't want just one).

Smartphone operating systems are such a new and rapidly developing field that it's not surprising there are so many. There will naturally be consolidation as the big players invest.

It's incredible to me that he just doesn't get the answer - develop in HTML, CSS and javascript! Modern browsers like Firefox 3 and Safari 3 contain all you need - including HTML5 offline storage - to deliver compelling applications. Sarin's developers are focused on the wrong layer in the stack.

The theme of the 2008 Mobile Wireless Congress is supposed to be internet applications. That's a start, but still not clear enough. Let's hope the 2009 Mobile Wireless Congress theme should be web applications.

The mobile web: Fast Pipe, Always On, Get Out the Way

There have always been tensions in between mobile operators and manufacturors, because both want control over phone services like email, news and sports readers.

Now, a third sector has entered the mix - Silicon Valley. Google, Yahoo and Microsoft are all racing to get their own services and applications - such as search engines or mapping tools - installed on phones.

Consequently, there's confusion. Amid much publicity, Vodafone recently annouced they were automatically reformatting web pages to fit mobile screens - and it quickly became clear that they were removing every advert and breaking many sites.

Fast Pipe, Always On, Get Out the Way

There's only one clear approach to solving this, best summarised by Tim Bray, and it relates to mobile operators: Fast pipe. Always on. Get out the way.

In other words, mobile operators must resign themselves to being pure utilities, providing wireless data at ever-increasing speeds. They're wasting time and money creating their own software services for consumers, because Silicon Valley understand better what to provide, can innovate faster, and can scale better.

Back to the future...

The mobile industry will go the same way as the PC industry. Initially, the only applications available were installed locally on the client. Then, basic web browsers became available. As network speeds increase, web applications became ever more popular. Eventually, people will live in the browser, wondering why any other applications even exist.

Even Silicon Valley seems to be forgetting some of these lessons. Yahoo! Go is a java download for mobiles that displays email, internet search, and maps. Why aren't they just re-formatting their websites instead, especially as mobile browsers like Safari 3 and Opera 9 support features like Ajax?

Mobile operators ARE broadband providers

The recent rush of mobile operators into providing home broadband is no surprise. It's a chance for them to learn the ropes before the mobile industry becomes fully IP-based too.

Unfortunately, they've failed to learn a key lesson of the web: IP is stupid, and intentionally so. All the power lies at the edge, with the content. Providing good content and services is a very different business to managing an IP network, and I think they'll struggle to do both.

SonyEricsson W960 versus Apple iPhone

All the recent iPhone hype has removed focus from other manufacturors plans. In most cases, it doesn't matter, because most phones are just thinner versions of the previous model.

But I'm really surprised there hasn't been more buzz about the Sony Ericsson W960, which will be released in Q4 - before the iPhone in its target markets (Europe and Asia).

Check the table below to compare features.

Feature	iPhone	W960
Touch Screen	Y	Y
Browser	Safari 3	Opera 9
Music Player	Y	Y
Video Player	Y	Y
Memory	8Gb	8Gb
Wifi	Y	Y
Connection	2.5G	3G
Camera	2 MPx	3.2 MPx
Keyboard	Virtual	Physical + handwriting recognition
Operator	AT&T	Any
Development	Ajax	Ajax + client

Note that the W960 phone will be available to all operators, developers have full access, it has a better camera, just as good a web browser, and it's 3G. Unfortunately, pricing information is not available, but it'll be interesting to see how it compares with the iPhone.

I'd also be very surprised if the W960 didn't come with MusicStation installed - which means you can subscribe to a massive library of songs, and download them directly for free - without even touching a PC!

At the very least it seems Steve Jobs was wrong about the iPhone being five years ahead of the industry ... it'll have a fight on its hands outside the US.